Title: Current and Potential Jobs in the U.S. Economy

Industry sector: Education/Research

INTRODUCTION
Dwindling natural resources, growing global demand for energy, climate change – these issues are irrevocably altering our global economy. In this report, the U.S. Conference of Mayors and Global Insight have examined the economic benefits of the 'Green Economy' - that part of economic activity which is devoted to the reduction of fossil fuels, the increase of energy efficiency, and the curtailment of greenhouse gas emissions. The greening of the U.S. economy, of the global economy, is not a dismantling of the past, but a new step forward – the next step in a continuous process of economic growth and transformation that began with industrialization and led us through the high-tech revolution.
The economic advantages of the Green Economy include the macroeconomic benefits of investment in new technologies, greater productivity, improvements in the US balance of trade, and increased real disposable income across the nation. They also include the microeconomic benefits of lower costs of doing business and reduced household energy expenditures. These advantages are manifested in job growth, income growth, and of course, a cleaner environment.
The remainder of the Introduction presents the background for our research of Green Jobs.
In the second section we establish a current count of Green Jobs in the U.S. economy as well as their distribution across metropolitan areas. The third section outlines areas of potential future growth. In the fourth section we forecast potential growth under a set of specific scenarios. The fifth section concludes.

OIL AND GAS CONSUMPTION
As is well known, the United States has a thirst for oil that well exceeds its production. In 1970, when domestic oil production peaked, net imports of foreign oil supplied 21% of total consumption in the United States. By 2007, that figure had risen to 59%, and Global Insight forecasts the import share of consumption to rise to 65% by 2030, unless measures are taken to decrease America's dependence on foreign sources of oil.
The primary driver behind our ever-increasing demand for foreign oil is the transportation sector, namely cars and trucks. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the transportation sector consumed 69% of total petroleum products in 2007.1Global Insight estimates that the transportation sector consumed a combined 179 billion gallons of petroleum-based fuels in 2007, and demand for all petroleum products is forecast to grow 7.7% by 2030. That increased demand, combined with lower domestic production, is expected to result in a 27% increase in daily petroleum imports by 2030 over 2007 levels. The transportation sector also accounted for 33% of CO2 emissions in 2007.
Our increased reliance on foreign oil has led to significant debate on topics such as energy security, foreign policy, and financial stability related to the widening trade deficit. Combining Global Insight’s oil import forecast with our expectations for crude oil prices, we are currently forecasting an average outflow of $240 billion per year, measured in 2006 dollars, to pay for imported oil through the year 2030.2 That $240 billion dollars, or 2.3% of Gross Domestic Product, acts very much as a tax on the U.S. economy. Indeed, it is worse than a tax - for the money flows out of the country, not to be re-invested in areas such as health care, education, or infrastructure.

ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Energy demand outside of the transportation sector is also growing, as the population increases and energy-dependent appliances continue to be ever more integrated into homes and businesses. The residential and commercial construction sectors, which use energy for heating and cooling buildings and homes, and electricity for lighting and appliances, are major sources of consumption.
Global Insight projects that by 2030, more than 36 million new homes and 20 billion square feet of commercial building space will be constructed to accommodate new demand and re- place older structures. This new construction will generate net additional demand of 790 billion kilowatt hours of electricity by 2030, equivalent to 465 million barrels of oil. Electricity expenditures in 2030 for those net additions are expected to be $120 billion. Electricity generation can also have a negative effect on health conditions. Pollution caused by "dirty" power plants (namely, coal-generated utilities), car and truck congestion, and energy-intensive manufacturing plants, all have adverse health effects on the population.

A GREENER ECONOMY
Scientists have almost universally accepted that global climate change is a reality. As a result, many nations are making concerted efforts to reduce the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHG emissions either by reducing the use of fossil fuels or by finding ways to prevent emissions from entering the atmosphere. While the United States accounts for only 5% of the world's population, it accounts for 20% of worldwide energy usage and 20% of global CO2 emissions. Becoming a greener economy will enable the U.S. to transition to a lower carbon economy, a step in the direction of preventing the adverse effects of global warming as well as improving public health and stabilizing energy expenditures. It will also create a significant number of new jobs.3
Global Insight has calculated the current total number of Green Jobs in the U.S. across several broad industries. These are industries that have high growth potential as the U.S. becomes a greener economy. We have also calculated potential growth under assumptions for the future of renewable electricity generation, increased energy efficiency for residential and commercial buildings, and increased usage of renewable fuels by the transportation sector.
This data has been broken out at both the national and the metro level. Metropolitan economies are the engines of U.S. economic growth; if investment in green industries is to successfully transform the U.S. economy, it must happen at the metropolitan and local level.
This investment is critical to our competitiveness in the global economy, to our living standards, indeed, to our future. These investments carry macroeconomic benefits as well – they create jobs, increase productivity, and generate income that creates further jobs. It is a virtuous cycle, an investment that has real returns for both the short and the long term.

1
Annual Energy Review. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Department of Energy. 2007.
Global Insight 3
2
The average outflow estimate is highly sensitive to expected future oil prices and would be higher if measured in
nominal dollars.
3
In this report we project potential job growth of moving toward a lower carbon economy but do not provide a cal-
culation of greenhouse gas reduction.